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To be, or not to be, that is the question

 

面对日益严峻的港口问题,如今摆在船公司眼前的是 To skip or not to skip.
 
跳港对于货主或者货代来说,短期内是受影响的,势必会打乱原有的出货计划,增加额外的运输成本,但是长期来看,未必是一件坏事。

 

 
 
 
 
 

 

先让我们看上个月的数据,

 

U.S. East Coast

 

New York – Vessel waiting time is 1 day due to certain level of import volume and vessel bunching after Thanksgiving Holiday closure.

 

Charleston – Vessel waiting time is 3-4 days due to high import volume and labor shortage.

 

Savannah – Vessel waiting time is 8 days due to high import volume, off proforma vessels, weather events, labor shortage and Thanksgiving Holiday closure.

 

U.S. Gulf Coast

Mobile – Vessel waiting time is 1 day due to yard congestion.

 

Houston – Vessel waiting time is 2-6 days due to high import volume, labor shortage and vessel bunching.

 

U.S. West Coast 

Long Beach – Vessel waiting time is 26-30 days due to high import dwell and labor shortage. On Friday December 3rd second shift, Pier A Terminal will be open for ‘Import Pick-up Only’. TTI Terminal yard utilization is at 65% of capacity.

 

Los Angeles – Vessel waiting time is 26-30 days due to yard congestion, high import dwell and labor shortage. APM Los Angeles yard utilization is at 93% of capacity.

 

Oakland – Vessel waiting time is 2-5 days due to high import volume, labor shortage and 1 berth being down.

 

Seattle – Vessel waiting time is 18 days due to high import volume and labor shortage. The T18 terminal yard utilization is at 100% of capacity.

 

Canada

Prince Rupert – Vessel waiting time is 5 days. Yard utilization is at 100% of capacity.

 

Vancouver – Vessel waiting time is 10 days. Yard utilization is at 100% of capacity.

 

 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 

美东SAV等待靠泊时间已经超过一周,靠了SAV势必会影响后续的班轮的准点率,这也是为什么各家船公司在11/12月份疯狂OMIT SAV 的原因, THE ALLIANCE  EC2全部SKIP SAV,SAV货全部转移去EC1航线,EC1 航线出勤率勉强55开。OCEAN ALLIANCE Week 43~50, SAX航线8条船,5条skip SAV。各家船公司为了稳定船期,只能忍痛割爱,暂时放弃SAV。不过好消息是,经过不断调整,SAV目前等待靠泊时间已经逐渐缩短至现在的1~3天。相信后续航线会陆续恢复靠泊SAV。
 
 
美西的OAK 其实已经经历过一次轮回,早在今年7/8月份的时候,OAK靠泊时间7天+,通过OAK 中转的货物更是遥遥无期,但是各家船公司调整航线,减少OAK 的靠泊,把SEATTLE,WA 作为代替港,上面数据表明OAK 已经恢复,但是可以看到SEATTLE,WA 又倒下了。
 
最新的数据更新,OAK 马上就会迎来一次新的轮回,即将开始漫长等待。
 
 

 

LA/LB 作为全美40%货物的入口,船公司无法放弃,但是相应的大家也能感受到,目前市场上LA/LB的船都少之又少,更何谈舱位?

 

这个是LA港12/16的数据。小伙伴们都惊呆了,只有4条船在等待,BIDEN真的是天才,一举搞定了LA的世纪拥堵问题。
 
 
其实不然,11/16开始,依照所分配到的泊位时间72小时前才能允许到港口20海里处,在这之前需要与LA海岸保持距离150海里以上。
 
20海里内才算数据,外面的不算的。数据是好看了,但是根本问题依旧没有解决。

 

以上是12/23 圣诞节休息前最新一版数据,看看小伙伴的船有没有在上面。

 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 

跳港是为了使船舶回程更快,船期更加稳定,船公司不得已被迫做出的选择,但是长远来说,客户可以选择就近的港口来解决燃眉之急,不至于货积压在仓库,始终无法出运的结局。
 
美国港口基建短时间内无法改善,问题明年依旧还在。
 
期待运费能降的小伙伴可能要失望了,明年运价可能依旧在高位。如碰到黑天鹅时间(比如减关税或者LA/LB 码头罢工),运价可能会再次刷新三观。

 

 
 
 
 
 

2021终于要结束了。

 

2022会好一些吗?

 

有人开玩笑说,接下来的2022,按照英文读法,其实就是2020再来一次(Twenty Twenty-Too)

 

哎,太现实,太清醒,太扎心。

 

但还是希望,2022我们不再这样糟糕。冬天已经来临,春天还会远吗?

 

 

 

 

 

To skip or not to skip